Dark Winter: How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell

I highly recommend reading “Dark Winter, by John L. Casey. According to John L. Casey, global warming is over and has already peaked between 1998 and 2007. The good news is that it wasn’t the fault of humans, it was the fault of the Sun. The bad news is that global warming has already been replaced by a 3 decade cooling trend due to a “Solar Hibernation”, and this cooling trend will not be as pleasant as the warming trend.According to Casey, global climate trends are controlled by changing energy output from the Sun, not elevated greenhouse gas levels. The Sun’s output can be estimated by counting the sun spots. A high number of sun spots indicates high energy output while a low number of sun spots indicates low energy output. The sun spots themselves have a low energy output, but the sun spots are surrounded by an area of much higher than average energy, making sun spots an indication of high energy output.Sun spots were first observed in 364 BC by Chinese astronomer Gan De, and by Greek astronomers in 300 BC. The Chinese started recording sun spot levels in 28 BC in their official records. (Wikipedia)Sun spot levels are cyclical and predictable to one sigma. Sun spot lows are correlated with low earth temperatures with a confidence level in excess of 90%.There are three sun spot cycles covered in this book, 11 year, 100 year and 206 year cycles. The 206 year cycle is the most emphasized in this book and has the highest repeatability and correlation with earth temperatures. The author evaluated sun spot data for the past 1200 years. Casey named the 206 year cycle the Bicentennial Cycle. He later discovered that the cycle had already been discovered by at least 2 other people separately, who named it the de Vries Cycle and the Suess Cycle.Periods of low sun spot activity are called “solar minimums”. The solar minimums also have names. The previous one on the 206 year cycle is the Dalton Minimum, named for its’ discoverer, John Dalton, a physicist who is best known for formulating the atomic theory. (Note how often climate discoveries are made by non-climatologists) The Dalton Minimum occurred between 1793 and 1830. This is a period that was known for extremely cold winters, cooler than average summers, but with higher than average number of 90 degree days. The solar minimum is preceded by several years of high temperatures and low precipitation. High levels if volcanic activity and earthquakes are coincident with solar minimums, but no one knows why. The Sun has already entered the next solar minimum after the Dalton Minimum on the 206 year cycle. The temperatures in the next 3 decades should therefore be similar to the temperatures between 1793 and 1830.Review of weather related events between 1793 and 1830:1788-1789 France: This is the heat immediately preceding the solar minimum. There were two consecutive crop failures due to high heat and drought. Bread prices doubled in one month, which helped to start the French Revolution. Similarly, record heat in 2010 was followed by record cold in 2011.1812-1813: This is the flip-side of the heat, the cold of the Dalton Minimum. Napoleon invaded Russia with an army of 600,000. 400,000 died, many from exposure to the cold. His defeat was at the low point of the Dalton Minimum. Similarly, if the peak heat is 2005, the peak cold should be 2031, 26 years later. In 2031, Canada may not be able to grow any grain in much of the prairie. New England and Upstate New York may also have extensive crop failures.1811-1812: Earthquakes along the New Madrid Fault rock the Mississippi Valley. This was a series of three earthquakes with a force of 8.0 on the Richter scale with many aftershocks. Many geologists believe the New Madrid Fault is currently due for movement, according to the Discovery Channel.1815: Mount Tambora erupts in Indonesia, the largest eruption in recorded history. This eruption was 300 times more powerful than Mount St. Helens 1980 and 10 times more powerful than Krakatau 1883. It affected the global weather for 2 or 3 years.1816, “The Year Without A Summer”: This was caused by a combination of the Dalton Minimum and the Tambora eruption. The winter brought bitter cold to New England and as far south as Pennsylvania. In June there was snow from New England to Virginia. July 4, it snowed again from New England to Virginia. In August in New England, the temperature quickly went from the 90’s to freezing, killing all crops. This started a mass migration from New England to Indiana and Illinois, allowing those two territories to gain enough population to become states. Corn, potato, and wheat crops were total failures in the UK and Ireland. Oat prices increase 700%. There were many outbreaks of typhus.1816 – 1823: Worldwide cholera epidemic.Other Cooling Indications:According to John L. Casey, there are many other indications that the Earth’s cooling is well underway:• Ocean temperatures are showing a clear cooling trend recently.• The Pacific Ocean is cooling and will continue to cool for 20-30 years.• World glacial ice is growing and has been growing for 10 years.• Antarctica is getting colder at the rate of 0.7 degrees C per decade. The ice sheet is growing and has grown by 45 billion tons in the past 10 years.• Greenland has cooled 1.29 degrees C from 1958 – 2001. The warmest recent decade in Greenland was the 1930’s. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been growing since 1992 and has been growing by 11 billion tons per year. Some studies that reported shrinking ice in Greenland only measured ice on the south coast when it was being affected by the Gulf Stream.• Mountain glacial ice stopped retreating in 1998 and has since started growing.• In 2008, Al Gore predicted that all the Arctic ice would be gone by 2013.John L. Casey has made the following conclusions based on his research:• The primary cause of climate change is the Sun, not greenhouse gas levels. Global warming has already ended.• The changes are cyclical and predictable with better than 90% accuracy.• A new Solar Minimum has already begun and will affect our weather for the next 3 decades.• The Sun has entered a period of “Solar Hibernation”, as it does every 206 years.• The coldest expected weather with the most severe crop damage is expected to be in the late 2020’s to the early 2030’s.• The climate models that predicted rising temperatures due to increasing levels of greenhouse gasses have already failed because they did not predict the current pause in the warming trend.There are at least 73 researchers with 40 peer reviewed papers that have similar conclusions in regards to the effects of the 206 year solar cycle minimum. Sixteen separate scientists predicted the coming cold period.I searched for critical reviews of the book. I could find no serious, negative reviews of the book.I have read other papers on this subject that were critically reviewed by researchers from the global warming lobby. All of them dismissed the effects of the sun on climate, but none of the reviews made any substantial objections to the papers.I recommend this book for anyone interested in climate. The book is written for people with little or no climate experience or education.

This book is a challenge for me as an evaluation object. On the positive side (which I would like to believe is the correct side, I find no objective errors and the author's statements are entirely plausible, and, in many instances, convincing. His conclusions sound reasonable to me, at least at the level I am qualified to judge. If I had go place my bets on the plausibility of the author's claims, I would state that I think he is correct in his assertions.On the other side, I am not knowledgeable enough to offer independent endorsement or acceptance of his arguments, some of which would be, at least in some quarters, controversial. Much of my difficulty arises from the author's passionate beliefs in his position, which lead him to arguments which, in places, sound more like salesmanship than scholarship.The work does not, in my opinion, meet the standards of convincing scholarship. However, that is not the same as believing the author's views are faulty ... It is merely a statement that I have no independent verification of the book's assertions. The author is, by his own description, not an academic. In several places in the book, his enthusiasm for his position comes across as somewhat amateurish advocacy, rather than detached factuality. Am I being fair or unfair? I am trying to be fair and balanced, and yet, this does not read as a scholarly work.In any case, If I had to take one position or the other, I would come down on the side of agreeing with the author, albeit, with some hesitancy. The question will probably be moot in the next decade, because either Nature will confirm his expectations, or will not. My expectation is that Nature will be on his side.He disagrees strongely with today's politically correct "global warming". He has lots of company agreeing with him, but not among the politically motivated.If he is correct, as I think he is, his position will be confirmed by Nature within the next 5 to 10 years. Be sure you have a couple of extra pair of "Long Johns" and a back up supply of rations, not to mention some snow removal equipment! If he is wrong, this advice will be moot.In any case, right or wrong, this book is fascinating reading ... I am glad I bought it and read it!

What has happened between the books publication and now? More new data needed to update the book and make it relavent today!

Good to Know how our politicians lie to us.

Global warming is a hoax. We were in a major ICE Age just 11,000 years ago, and we are experiencing a LACK of Sun spots. The ice age has warm and cool cycles. Global warming is nothing but a hoax to CONTROL PEOPLE AND CREATE A ONE WORLD GOVT.

The theories in the book are all reasonable. Unfortunately, a lot of the stats and projections are about 10 years past. Current supporting stats can be found on the internet. They have to be carefully gleaned from unbiased sources, though.

This is an excellent resource for anyone trying to counter the anthropogenic"Climate Change" fad that we are currently experiencing.

Once I realised that the media were trying to lead me around by the nose ; I decided to investigate so-called Global Warming and to look for reasons for it. When the media dumped the term Global Warming and went for the term Climate Change, my intellectual antennae started waving about ... What is going on ? As a Briton I am aware that Climate Change has been going on all of my life and as I approach 70 I am forced to wonder whether the British small talk about the weather isn't an indication that we have ever talked about anything else ! WHY is it suddenly so fashionable ? Once we do our homework and find out the pivotal effect that the Sun has on our climate ( I watched a total Solar eclipse in Finland some years ago ; the drop in temperature during the period brief of darkness was astounding ; we went from shirtsleeves to padded winter jackets VERY rapidly ! ) ...We have the right to question why Carbon Traders & people like Al Gore are trying to convince us that it is anthropogenic ( man-made ) CO2 which is causing rising temperatures. Dark Winter will put you right. It gives excellent data and arguments showing that we are heading for a COLDER period in the Solar Cycles. I have been observing for myself for 4 years that the number of sunspots has decreased dramatically. Last time this happened was 240 years ago when there were ice fairs held on the frozen River Thames in London. A period of warming was followed by sudden and severe COOLING ( which is where we seem to be @ present ) Dark WInter tells us that if we follow the data about sunspots and Solar activity ... the winters around 2030 will be as cold as those that were the subject of Breughel's paintings ( amongst others ). As I live in Finland ; I am forced to question whether the North of Finland will even be inhabitable if the temperatures drop sufficiently to freeze the Thames almost a thousand kilometers to the South . There may even be a good argument for KEEPING as much CO2 as we can ... To maintain the warming and prevent the freezing. If you're interested in the subject ; you should read this book for yourself!

The author has spent many years investigating and analysing the data published here and his conclusions seem very reasonable. He has an engineering background which explains his thorough and methodical work. We need to take note of his conclusions and would probably be wise to make some changes to our own lifestyle as his predictions start to occur. Forewarned is forearmed as they say, so as the worst starts to happen as per his predictions you cannot say you were not warned in time.

If you look at images of earth from satellites then you can see we are not 'frying' our planet. The author see's the danger of socialism, as that is half of the problem .. they hate western civilization hence their desire to deindustrialize it. No forecasts by the climate warriors has ever come true , a fact worth remembering.History is a great teller of our future, geological records do not lie about the history of our planet. Politicians and the media on the other hand ... !A great informative read, well worth buying.

An amazingly important book, people need to know about this, especially the global warming lobby. It gives the lie to some of the things being pushed by Greta etc

An interesting book with alarming predictions written in a very boring way, I read about half of it and found it strangely soporific.Chance favours the prepared mind and when the time to prepare arrives it's already too late IMHO, make of this what you will.