The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China Hardcover – March 22, 2022

The Avoidable War is a very timely book on the high tensions that exist between the US and China at the moment. It was published in March, soon after the Russia invasion of Ukraine and as such is very well timed in terms of its relevance. Of course the book must have been a project that has been worked on for quite some time now so it also indicates the author's predictive understanding of the growing conflicts that are now manifesting themselves in devastating actions at the level of nation state. The Avoidable War is an overview of the author's beliefs about the narratives that drive both the US and China's position on both the global and domestic arenas. It spends much time discussing the priority hierarchy that potentially drives the CCP actions an in particular it attempts to frame the mindset of Xi Xinping.The author spends time on the perspective of both China and the US but spends much more time on China. As a former prime minister of Australia as well as a long time student of China, Kevin Rudd is truly an expert on the subject he is covering and has met extensively with global leaders throughout his career. The author begins by giving the historical relationship between the US and China and the thawing between the two with Nixon opening up to China. He gives a background to the hopes of the US in its early embrace and the contradicting core values that have remained at the center of the CCP with small blips perhaps in the 80s. The author then goes on to discuss how trust is now at a historical low with the failure of globalization to be equitable in its economic outcomes for many classes and with the Trump phenomenon coming to full force in the recent years. Both sides can agree on little common ground and as such each views the others actions through the most pessimistic lens and this is makes compromise increasingly difficult with both actors digging their heels in on their own world views. The author moves on to discussing Xi Xinping, a leader who has disappointed much of the world with a pull to the right for China and its nationalism. The author has met and had overlap with Xi Xinping on the order of 3 decades when the author was a young diplomat in China. He gives his perspective on the man and his character and worldview. At the core the author describes Xi as a man who is committed to taking China to its "rightful place" on the world stage. There is much historical baggage to this perspective in which wrongs from hundreds of years ago are relevant for todays dismissal of the intent of liberalism. Furthermore the author highlights Xi's lack of comfort in economics but strong calculations with regards to politics. The author moves on to the hierarchy of concerns that drive the party's calculations, first and foremost is the sustained ruling ability for the CCP. This maintenance of power is of more importance than any other consideration and as such is a subject for which any use of force can be justified if the Party's authority becomes at risk. Another critical concern is how to unify the vast population of China to achieve the common goals of the country, from this drives a use of Nationalism to create cohesion on a group of the scale of China. This has substantial risks as a strategy as nationalist fervour can be challenging to contain when it blows up. The author of course highlights the need for China to deliver economic growth to maintain its mandate to govern the population. One can see that economics can be subordinated to other priorities in times like now given their Covid lockdowns but there is still a core focus on improving living standards as a critical pillar for the party to focus on. The author also discusses longer term objectives like modernizing the military and developing its technological expertise. Topics like the construction of bases in the South China Sea are discussed as well as the development of a blue water fleet. The author also highlights how projects like the Belt and Road initiative are important for China to create a web of dependable economic relationships with its neighbors as well as some of the frictions that come from the lack of institutional oversight of projects. The author weaves this into its overall leverage building with neighbors through infrastructure aid and other moves to create dependencies. There is a much lower soft power component to China's initiatives but it still creates benefits for many recipients especially while the US has stepped back from its overseas engagement. The author then focuses on the desire to change the global order. This can be seen on a day to day basis with the overall dismissal of the idea that the liberal order is the legitimate one and so the longer term re-design of global institutions which were an outgrowth of the WWII aftermath is a continued project from China.The author then moves on the US which is a fraction of the book and discusses the US's disappointment in the path that China has taken. He discusses how the US feels like it was cheated by the steps China took in its integration into the worlds economy and how it did not follow through on core promises with regards to its own economy. With a revised view on China and the expected path of its political economy the perspectives on the benefits of engagement are now considered to be substantially outweighed by the detrimental consequences and as such a decoupling has started. The US has yet to adjust what it can offer allies so that they can regain some of the standing that it had prior to Trump and military aid remains the more de facto form of aid than greater trade and economic benefits. Nonetheless this will start to change and one can see from the revival of Nato that some aspects of these trends are starting to reverse due to global events.The author ends with the dangers that come from this growing conflict of fairness on the world stage but notes the deep connections between the two countries from a financial standpoint. He highlights some mechanisms that might be used to prevent unintentional misunderstood signals and the need for policies that mimic how the US and the Soviet Union tried to prevent disaster through protocols. Overall the author tries to highlight where the grievances stem from and how both sides need to better understand each other such that conflict becomes less likely but ultimately there are deep ideological divides that are now obvious and impossible to reconcile. That being said at least part of this conflict stems from leadership personalities that catalyze escalation when friction shows itself namely with Trump and Xi and as such some revision from leadership should be a key ingredient to any normalization. It appears unlikely that anything like that can be expected right now as politically nationalism and the views on the clash of civilizations is on the rise. Overall The Avoidable War is a well timed and insightful book that can help the reader understand China's calculus better.

I listened to the audio version and then purchased a hard copy to read for a second time. Mr Rudd has come up with the type of analysis and insights rarely seen from a politician these days. The fact he speaks Chinese and had been on the inside, has in no doubt aided him in his endeavor by making a clear sense of a most complex domestic and geopolitical situation and then proposing realistic solutions. He uses ample data to support many of his thesis but only where it is needed and necessary. The writing is equally crisp, direct and in some places passionate and powerful. This is truly a must read for anyone who is interested or bothered by what is going on between China and the US, especially for those who are likely briefed daily on those matters but choose to stick to his or her own beliefs because of oversized arrogance or sheer ignorance on both sides.Now I come to a few areas where I somewhat disagree or perhaps hope to add to the author’s perspectives without giving things away. First of all, while Mr Rudd’s 10 circles of relative strategic importance of Xi Jinping’s priorities are the most comprehensive I have seen for completeness, I am afraid he is giving the communist leader too much credit for his overall mindset and intelligence. Xi is certainly an astute student of revolutionary politics and has proven ruthless in its prosecution. However, he is quite behind his contemporaries when it comes to economics and geopolitical prowess in today’s international environment. As a result, many of the strongman and imperial style ambitions he expresses may never be carried out. Even if he attempts, disastrous outcomes await his regime and the Chinese people at large. China under Xi Jinping is therefore likely to be aggressive in name only but not in substance, some of which Mr Rudd has also alluded to. Secondly, much of Xi Jinping’s actions at present are no more than political power posturing for Chinese domestic consumption. Just like Mao Zedong some 70 years before, China will not start a war with the US over Taiwan for fear of losing to the US and therefore see its one party legitimacy in jeopardy. To that end, a preemptive attack on the US in the Pacific to exploit a strategic first mover advantage is even less plausible. Having said that, I do think chances for an accidental military confrontation due to miscalculation are nonetheless real between China and the US but of limited consequence. Thirdly, there are also hawkish factions in the US which are spoiling for a major war just to defeat China in an epic battle between “the good and evil.” The last thing China wants is to be coerced into such an eventuality where the loser is bound to be itself regardless of its economic size and military preparedness. At the end of day, close to half of China’s population still barely survives with $1000 per year, a dismal distance from even the least prosperous of developed countries.So what if Taiwan decides to breach the red line and declares independence in the near term? This would definitely incur Xi’s wrath and bring China and the US immediately to the brink of war, leaving him with no choice. I however hope that smarter minds and cooler heads can prevail under such a scenario. The most common sense response is to simply refuse to acknowledge Taiwan’s legitimacy and cut off diplomatic and economic relations with any country which chooses to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country. Unless there is a global boycott of China should it choose military intervention, I doubt any of the countries including the major Western Powers will take sides with the renegade province, especially if China chooses a non-military approach.If Xi Jinping indeed has the interest of the Chinese people at heart, then China’s sheer scale in territorial size and population coupled with sustained economic growth will see its economy return to global dominance, eclipsing any other country by a large margin in 20-25 years. Xi Jinping may not see Taiwan return to the motherland in his lifetime, but if there is a legacy to speak of for himself, it would be the laying of the foundation for 1000 years of Chinese Rejuvenation. By then, who will ever care about Taiwan?

I decided to pick up this book to learn about China, now one of the most important countries. This book focuses on TRUST - “Can We Trust China?” This reading reminded me of a very relevant story I heard from a Vietnamese friend some time ago. He said his Chinese father never needed a paper contract in conducting his business for decades in Vietnam. His trusted customers can pick up products and needed only pay his father after they have sold the products. This was done verbally without any paper contract. A new customer would be given a chance to start small and prove his/her trustworthy in time. If anyone cheats, the words of mouth would spread quickly in the trusting community; and it would be very difficult for this bad person to rejoin this Chinese business community again. My friend said he never heard any one cheated and his father never had a lawyer. The “trust” stories in the book are different but it tells the same “trust” I learned from this friend. It is very interesting to see someone elaborating this topic in a book in great depth. It is written in away enjoyable to read. Despite I have heard a similar story before, I still learn a lot more from this book. This is absolutely a great book anyone can learn in order to be successful with China or Chinese.

Very enlightening and informative perspective on China and Xi Jinping. Valuable view in that Rudd is not from the US. He compares likely scenarios of the US and China relationship going forward. Some of the scenarios are very bad for the US and would be changing of the whole world order that we have been a benefactor of since WWII.It is little dry at times, but still worth wading through the detail that supports his conclusions. This book is a valuable piece for educating yourself about path ahead for the US and China.