Should We Fear Russia? (Global Futures)

Thought-provoking large essay, but it doesn't answer the question. It ziz-zags and meanders, arriving to a conclusion that the situation in Western-Russian relations is bad and dangerous, as at any time during the Cold War, but it is bad and dangerous in its own new way.As we move to the future, the U.S. must fear the forces of anarchy, extremist ideology, failed states, environmental catastrophe, the next financial bubble, mismanaged relations with Iran and DPRK. That makes Russia and the U.S. allies some of the time. My concern is that there is no strategy of dealing with Russia, no agreement on "Russia" policy. Sanctions are becoming the "Russia policy" fast. We are wanting and waiting the "Putin's regime" to expire. As Obama said in his famous interview to the Atlantic, "I don't really need George Kennan", which means "I don't need a Russia strategy, Russia lives in the past and is a weak pariah state". "Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country" - a quip from a top Senator. The Beltway's refusal to formulate and communicate to the Russians a coherent policy is a cloud on the horizon which will become a category 4 hurricane quickly.Let's not forget that Russia is a major power with its own habits and a long history of devastating wars and survival. It steps on toes. The US must respect the tragic history of Europe and Russia's place in it. We, the U.S., should fear Russia if we continue to advance in the Eastern Europe, expand the West and our spheres of influence, give out our security guarantees, leaving no buffer zones and neutral states separating NATO from Russia. If history is any guide, it is a strategy which could lead to war.It is a Thucydides trap as U.S. is afraid or resurgent Russia, the Russians are afraid of U.S. coming close to its borders. Ever since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, the balance of power in Europe had been founded on the division of Germany and the resultant existence of the BUFFER ZONES between the major states of the continent. Today, with the NATO troops are almost across the Russian borders, there are no buffer zones; already the US, which is a backbone of NATO, and Russian troops are eyeball-to-eyeball in some places across Russia's European border. Is that really smart?Sure, these NATO forces are the tripwire forces -- they are there to reassure the Poles and the Balts, but the tripwire might do little to deter the Russians. They annoy the Russians, if not taunt them, while the Russians are very good in annoying the U.S. back. This adds to a poisonous atmosphere. It is anti-strategy, and I'm sure George Kennan is turning in his grave. Putting tripwire force on Russian borders might not be a very good long-term strategy for the US.Trenin's book is timely and it circles around right questions. Is Russia a threat or a ‘paper tiger’? The Obama administration had two conflicting messages – first, Russia is a threat, and second – Russia isn't a threat at all. Is Russia a Great Power? Does it need to be accommodated because hot war is not an option? Or it's a garden variety regional power which is becoming an outcast state -- a view which Obama held at the end? This is the real paradox: Obama came to the office with a strong impetus for cooperation with Russia and left office 8 years later with a legacy of disengagement, mutual tit for tat, and even military stand-off.Today many leading US think tanks and the leading figures of the Senate see Russia as evil adversary, an enemy, because, in their view, Russia is a despotism where tyrannical leaders are firmly set against rule of law, personal freedom, and free elections. Many are calling for additional sanctioning and boycotting. In their view, Russia is poised to invade a NATO country. At the same time, the Russian internal politics have forced the Russian leadership to react abrasively to US and Europe's actions, especially in Ukraine. The laundry list of Russian complaints includes NATO expansion, US withdrawal form anti-ballistic missile treaty, support of 'color' revolutions in the post-Soviet countries, and alleged participation in the coup in Ukraine. The Russians viewed the EU pathway for Ukraine as a "stalking horse" for NATO.Trenin, in his previous book ‘Post-Imperium’ published in 2011, gave a summary of Russia in transition from communism. If ‘Post-Imperium’ offered a bird's-eye view of the Russian political and social landscape during the turmoil of 1991-2011, this book is about the post-2011 turmoil and breakdown of Russia-West relations. The author conclusion -- there is no need for a serious existential fear; “the Russian Empire is not making a comeback”. He stresses again Russia is a fragile and paradoxical country with a long and tragic history, with both communitarian and autocratic traits, a multi-voiced creature, consisting of a variety of beliefs, many pilling in different directions or competing with one another.However, in the middle of the book, he reverses his tone. “Today Russia is statist, patriotic/nationalistic, and revisionist”. Well, it is precisely ‘revisionist’ Russia everyone in the West is frightened of. On page 49 he goes “And, havng been unable and unwilling to adapt to the US-dominated post-Cold war world, Russia is out to rebel against it, breaking the written and unwritten rules of behavior as it seeks to obtain recognition for its great-power status.” The book zig-zags a bit.Trenin is absolutely correct that Russia seeks to be recognized as a Great Power. China and the US are the other two Great Powers, although the elites in the US consider this as an outdated way of relating to the world. Today, the U.S. is involved in intense security competition with Russia over the former Russian spheres of influence in the post-Soviet space and this dis-accommodation of Russia is pushing Russia towards alliance with another Great Power -- China and closer ties with Iran.Obama couldn't or avoided inflicting a serious economic damage on Russia. The US didn’t introduce the “crippling” sanctions – e.g. exclusion from the SWIFT global banking system, which brought the Iranian financial system to a halt in 2012. The sanctions were severe enough to make Russians hostile and seek rapprochement with China, but not enough to change their behavior or drive “Putin’s regime” out of power.In my opinion, this is what we need to fear most -- lack of knowledge of Russia and half-measures based on confused thinking. Is Russia Great Power or not? Shall we seek containment or accommodation? Do we need a new security arrangement? How are we going to deal with the emerging world disorder in a new genuinely multipolar nuclear age if we continue giving Russia a miss? The Trump administration must answer these. If you think that Russia is a Great Power and acts according to that logic -- like China and the U.S.-- most issues fall into place and the logic of Russia’s behavior becomes more clear. Balance of power, buffer zones, formal or informal empires and spheres of influence is what the Great Powers do, if history is any guide. Great Powers are serious about security of their neighborhoods; they don’t normally tolerate peer-competitors there.Trenin book is a worthy read, despite all criticism. I would probably stressed more what Russia with the United States have in common. Both have great responsibilities for maintaining global order and preventing conflict, both have formidable nuclear arsenals (95% of the World) and global reach, both have access to Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Russians borrowed many emancipatory ideas form the US, though the Americans always have stressed liberty, while the Russians equality. What happened last 100 years in Russia wedded to the tradition of American radicalism and the heritage of Alexander I’s old admirer, Thomas Jefferson. Russia is a hard case and certainly looks like a wild card to the US. I recommend this book to anyone who seeks knowledge about Russia.

Wonderfull short book taking each angle at a time.The reader finds Good Reading for evt Russia is a bigger threat as week than strong. The book is problem focused. Lacking suggestions to western policy actions rather than they must be well balanced incl China which power will rise over the one of Russia.

Scholarly, erudite yet largely accessible to the non-specialist reader, Mr Trenin clearly explains the current politics of Russia. Thank-you, Mr Trenin, for this clear, coherent and balanced response to the book title's question. Your name has gone to the top of my list of distinguished writers on Russia. Please give your readers the pleasure of more of your work on this vital contemporary topic.

Clear and yet not a mainstream thinker. Very contemporary on the Russian issues.Highly recommended!

There are times when the right book comes by at the right time, giving exactly the kind of insight or boost you need. This is that time, although I wish it wasn’t. 'Should We Fear Russia?' by Dmitri Trenin is more than apropo for our time. As President-elect Trump builds his cabinet with people not just soft on Russia, but directly connected to it along with Vladimir Putin himself, Trenin not only shows us how we got here, but also what we should be careful of going forward.Early on Trenin explains a key indicator of Russian society that puts it squarely in line with the US. He writes,"Russian society and polity has not yet concluded peace within itself: the “us” (common people) vs. “them” (elites) division runs deep."There you have a key reason for us now having to use the term “President-elect” in front of Trump’s name. While our divide in the US may not stem from the same source or moment in time, anytime a cavern like that opens between those two groups, big changes are going to come, for better or worse.Trenin also points out a specific historical pattern that should give any reader pause. He notes whenever a conflict ends and the winning side does not mend the bridge or ingratiate the losing side, you guarantee a new conflict within the next generation. I imagine this occurs because the losing side has no reason to let the hate or distrust in the winning side dissipate. It will only build, fester, and grow until release of that anger is imminent.'Should We Fear Russia?' makes another point that what we hear in the news today and the fear mongering over Russia is overblown, unfounded, and dangerous because it distracts us from the real reasons to be immensely concerned. The Russian empire by his account is not making a comeback, but it has also not dissapeared enough to be ignored in the global power struggle. There are moves Putin can make to ensure their place at the table and everyone should watch closely for those.Yet, as we all know, history tends to repeat itself, and Russia has precedent it needs to be careful of. Russia, unlike the US, does not shift its leaders around by ballot or public referendum. That may give you the impression that the citizens are powerless, yet Trenin dutifully points out the Russian state has been upended twice by its own people. The appearance of power, or lack thereof, can be deceiving.In one section Trenin’s opinion immediately dates the writing of the book to before the 2016 US election took place. How do I know? Read this excerpt, "In the current climate in Europe and the United States, being linked to Russian interests is a kiss of death for anyone with a public career in mind. Russia is now more appealing to retired actors and sports figures."Trump and numerous members of his incoming cabinet have links to Russian, going so far as one member even receiving an award from Putin himself. The “kiss of death” has undoubtedly fallen by the wayside, overwhelmed by our own internal disgust with the political class.Lastly, Trenin looks into the future, warning that a Russian state as it stands is one that needs to be considered, but not feared outright, while a failed Russian state that crumbles under economic and military sanctions, will be even more dangerous. The world at large needs to be careful what it wishes for regarding the future of Russia.'Should We Fear Russia?' is intelligent, direct, and incredibly timely. Trenin calmly reasons out all the issues, showing us which fears to ignore and which ones we are not paying enough attention to. If we were really smart, a copy of this book would be sent to every member of Congress. Can we get a Kickstarter set up for that?

Dimitri Trenin is one of Russia’s most respected commentators on foreign policy. He heads Carnegie Moscow, perhaps the only western organized think tank in Russia. The fact that it still exists points out Trenin’s importance to the Kremlin as a spokesperson to the West. This 144 page essay is an effort to explain Russia’s position, and hopefully help defuse the present day crisis. In doing so, Trenin walks a very difficult tightrope indeed.According to Trenin Russia should not be feared by the West for the following reasons:-Russia’s actions are defensive, and have been implemented to impede the advances of NATO and the EU into its ‘’Near Abroad,’’ an area that it feels is its own exclusive sphere of influence.--Russia is extremely weak and faces huge social and economic challenges. It is in no position to undertake major neo-imperialist expansions.-the Kremlin is pragmatic and not anti-American. It is ready to negotiate under the right terms and circumstances, in spite of what it believes is intense western russophobia.-American power is declining and Russia is simply stepping into its natural ‘’pivotal role’’ in the coming New World Order, a role to which it has an historical entitlement. Other major country’s such as China share Russia’s dislike of American dominance, and are already moving to join it in its confrontational stance.-Finally, Russia matters due its geographical size and military power. Dangerous when strong, it would be even more dangerous in decline. It will somehow have to be dealt with constructively, and the sooner the better to avoid the possible catastrophic results of its collapse. In other words, drop the sanctions.From a geo-political realist’s point of view it makes sense to compromise and get along. However, all of this begs the key issue of what are the real interests of both Russia and the West. In general, Pax America has brought about stability and increased affluence for much of the world’s population. America’s values and ideals are cherished by many, and it has friends and allies throughout the world. The West’s interests require that these values, and the American system of world security be maintained, and that includes Eastern Europe. To give up Ukraine to Putin, would not only weaken the Eastern borders of a key ally, Europe, but also to undermine our values, which in the end are our greatest strength.And what are Russia’s real interests? I have been reading Dimitri Trenin for many years, and he has always authoritatively and brilliantly stated the same viewpoint: Russia’s only natural ally is the West, and that if it is to keep its borders intact it must undertake immediate and profound reforms, which are not just incremental, but political as well.In the conclusion of this book, Trenin turns stunningly on his tight rope and lays bare Putin’s failures. He starts by relating that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the following plan to establish “Novorossiya,” were incredibly naïve blunders, linked to the Kremlin’s hysteria over the Maidan revolt, which it saw as an American plot. In contrast, it is clear to Trenin that a major nuclear power like Russia has absolutely nothing to fear from the West, and that no geo-political maneuvering in Eastern Europe could change that reality. Instead, as a result of its actions, Russia has lost the good will of Germany, it chief economic partner, and has thrown itself into the hands of a China, a country whose interests are not conducive to that of its own.Trenin finishes by underlining that Putin’s strategic disaster in Ukraine, has less to do with Europe, and the geo-political order of the world, than it does with the future of Russia. He repeats that if there is not major reform within Russia within the next four years, that all will be lost for the country. What a finish! One could never have imagined this while reading the first chapters. I wonder what the Kremlin thought.I have just returned from a southern Ukrainian city where the vast majority of the population is Russian speaking, most of them being ethnic Russians. There was a wide spectrum of opinion on the war, Putin’s role in it, and the government in Kiev, but one thing was made very clear, the younger generations, without exception, wanted nothing to do with Vladimir Putin and his “managed democracy.” They have turned fully towards the West, and what they consider a better way of life. Ukraine is now under great economic and social pressure, in large part due to Putin’s war. I believe it would not be in our interests, Ukraine’s, or even that of Russia, to let these young people down.

Without being pro-Putin at all and while clearly seeing the authoritarian and cleptocratic aspect of Russia, Trenin makes a sobering anlysis, showing that Russia is not at all as dangerous as some beleive. He explaines why Crimea and Donetzk are rather exceptions than examples and why there is no reason for the Baltics (or Sweden) to fear any Russian attack. He also reminds us about the Western surrounding of Russia. What should the USA say if Mexico or Canada joined a Russian dominated alliance? At the same time he shows that Russia is weak, economically (how many Russian items do Westerners consume, compared to Chinese?) and militarily (about a tenth of the USA might). We may be forced to fear the weakness of Russia, not its non-existant strength. An internarly stronger Russia, including more democratic, would be a nicer and more trustworthyt partner for the future than a weak Russia fearing being surrounded and degraded. So why doesn't the democratic world treat Russia as Germany was treated after Hitler? Trenins book is a must for everybody who really prefers cooperation to conflict in Europe.

EXCELLENT BOOK

An excellent book written by a terrific author who runs the Carnegie Institute in Moscow. A real insight into Russian thinking.

good book and intro on Russian foreign policy. Catherine