The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner

Every adult needs to read this book and put pressure on Congress to reduce our On Alert Nuclear status. .. below is a quote from Kruschev a few years after the Cuban missle crisis.“When I asked the military advisors if they could assure me that holding fast would not result in the death of five hundred million human beings, they looked at me as though I was out of my mind, or what was worse, a traitor. The biggest tragedy, as they saw it, was not that our country might be devastated and everything lost, but that the Chinese or the Albanians might accuse us of appeasement or weakness. So I said to myself, “To hell with these maniacs. If I can get the United States to assure me that it will not attempt to overthrow the Cuban government, I will remove the missiles.” That is what happened, and now I am reviled by the Chinese and the Albanians.… They say I was afraid to stand up to a paper tiger. It is all such nonsense. What good would it have done me in the last hour of my life to know that though our great nation and the United States were in complete ruins, the national honor of the Soviet Union was intact? “That last line, indeed the whole quote, deserves to be studied by all those whose fingers hover over the trigger to a Doomsday Machine.

The Doomsday Machine by Ellsberg is an excellent introduction to the complexities of nuclear weapons and their deployment. Ellsberg covers the period of the 1960s, especially the first half, and the nature of the command and control of nuclear weapons deployment. His views were based upon his consulting as a RAND employee and having the ability to move in and around the multiplicity of players in this area. One may think that the President is the sole point of activation of a nuclear release but as Ellsberg so clearly shows the ability to deploy was and most likely still is diffused to the lowest levels.Ellsberg depicts a Major in South Korea in charge of a bunch of nuclear armed F100s, all equipped with tactical but deadly nuclear bombs, who has taken it upon himself to determine when his pilots will deploy their weapons. Ellsberg also infers that the pilots themselves could even individually make the decision to deploy. Ellsberg does discuss the details of how a multiple F100 deployment may very well blow some of the F100s to shreds when the other have deployed due to the wide area blast effects.The discussion of the SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) plans and the various attack options that the US had developed. In contrast he does not discuss the Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP) plan which is a counter to SIOP. Yet his discussion of the military and its nonchalant acceptance of 100 million casualties, namely deaths, was typical of military planner during this period. He does a superb job in characterizing the mindset of the planners and those in command regarding their near comfort in seeing just 100 million dead Americans as long as they could exterminate a larger number of Russians and Chinese.Ellsberg's telling of this situation and in this time frame is unique because he was at the level of an observer, having no political gain to be made, being at RAND and being but a consultant, albeit one with extraordinary access.Ellsberg does spend a reasonable amount of space on the issues of limiting nuclear weapons especially first strike capabilities. However as he had already detailed first strike management could already be out of the hands of an President. In fact the President, who may think he or she has the "button" may be circumvented by some field commander, or worse, by a single pilot or sub commander. The movie Fail Safe startled Ellsberg by its reality. Worse was that it portrayed a Doomsday Machine which would only deter if the other side was aware of it.To a degree, my time on nuclear weapons was a decade later than Ellsberg, ironically my first day after my PhD was the day Ellsberg's material hit the NY Times. Coming from MIT, and Ellsberg then being at MIT, I was looked at a bit askance. Yet over the next decade as I became involved in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, especially during the Carter period, it was clear that the only way to use a nuclear weapon was not to use a nuclear weapon. The RISOP scenarios showed the annihilation of life on the planet. There was no way to win, first strike or otherwise. A Russian and US nuclear war was the destruction of all. Ironically in my later discussions with my Russian partners after the fall it was clear that they too understood this, positioning or not.The risk is a rogue player, one who can really push the button. That perhaps is more of a reality today than during the 60s and 70s. Ellsberg's book is a must read for anyone interested in the nuclear debate, a debate whose only solution in my opinion is not to use the device.

As in his previous book, Ellsberg writes a clear, lucid prose from an insider's perspective that few have shared. The total picture he shares of our nuclear program is chilling, mirroring and going beyond other revelations of the past few decades. Among other things, his presentation from nearby further adds to my impression that American military planners of the 50's and 60's had lost their reason, were consumed by a lust for killing beyond the dreams of the Mongol hordes. Civilian control of the military has become increasingly tenuous with the creation of a permanent military state, and nowhere is this shown more clearly than in the face-off with Admiral Arleigh Burke, when the Secretary of Defense's office gets a tongue-lashing from the Admiral for interfering with a ship deployment that was violating our treaty agreement with Japan not to put nuclear weapons on their territory. It's just as disturbing to see the lengths to which the Pentagon went to keep the President and Secretary of Defense from even knowing that they had a top-secret plan for total nuclear war, of which not even the acronym could be spoken.Some people are fond of saying that the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots. Ellsberg, who at one time faced 120 years in prison for exposing government deception of the people, military deception of the government, and military deception of itself, is a prime example of a patriot. I'm grateful for this book, which deserves a wide audience.

Daniel Ellsberg is famous as the whistle blower who released the Pentagon Papers, a history of the US involvement in Vietnam prepared on the instructions of Robert McNamara. Regardless of what one feels of whistle blowing, Ellsberg faced the consequences for his choice and was prepared to go to prison, something which does display integrity and which is worthy of respect, ultimately the case collapsed as a result of illegal actions aimed at him by the US government which led to the fall of President Nixon.This book is part personal memoir, part history of US nuclear policy and certain events, part analysis and part political polemic. Ellsberg worked for the RAND corporation, a private think tank with close links to the US Air Force which performed a range of consulting and research functions for the Air Force and which had access to some of the most sensitive of US secrets. This included working on nuclear strategy and nuclear command and control. The book shows how Ellsberg had a sort of epiphany when he asked how many people would be killed if the US nuclear war plan was executed. The book recounts a study Ellsberg made of nuclear command and control and his shock at discovering the extent of authority to use nuclear weapons being delegated to relatively junior officers, contrary to what most people believe. The book considers the evolution of US nuclear war plans, and the inflexible all out attack plan which meant that any incident with the USSR was likely to result in an all out nuclear attack on both the USSR and China involving a ridiculous amount of bombs and which would annihilate China even if they were not involved in any tension. Ellsberg worked to promote a more flexible plan, and was an insider during the Cuban missile crises. He recounts the concept of a doomsday device and the dangers of launch on warning policies and automated respnses and the concept of a nuclear winter looms large throughout the book.The story is frightening, and much of Ellsberg's analysis if both perspicacious and surprisingly balanced given what you might expect from a former nuclear insider turned whistle blower who has spent a large part of his life raising awareness of the dangers of nuclear destruction. He is clearly a highly intelligent man, with a highly developed capability for logical analysis and moral values. He shows the absurdity of planning for nuclear war based on ideas that one side could in some way "win" such a war, the outcome would be truly catastrophic for life and the planet. In some ways the pugnacious character of Curtis LeMay strikes me as being more attractive than most others in the book, as whatever his faults there was a brutal honesty about LeMay and he never hid from his responsibilities and decisions in the way that most of the others in this story (including Ellsberg himself through the 1950's and 1960's) did.So why only three stars? Most of the book is generally factual and balanced, and allows the horror of what is explained speak for itself without resorting to hyperbole (sober analysis is frightening enough). The final section however does become a rather polemical rant, and there is a certain naivety in that the author doesn't really face the unfortunate fact that we cannot uninvent nuclear weapons. A comment that he learnt far more from anti-war activist friends than at Harvard struck me as a rather asinine statement and an attempt to equate workers at Rocky Flats with Auschwitz was rather offensive in my view. Ultimately whilst Ellsberg highlights a whole range of frightening vulnerabilities and failings it is also true that the nuclear weapon safeguards in place since 1945 worked.I think those interested in this story should read the following two books:1. The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman, despite being perceived as a bit of a right wing hawk Freedman's book remains the best work on the subject and is not an apologia or defence of nuclear strategy, if anything his conclusions are more damming than Ellsberg's simply because they drop out of a rather disapassionate and rational analysis. A heavy weight academic tome and a little dry but excellent.2. Command and Control, by Erich Schlosser. A more accessible work than Freedman's, aimed at a general reader but one which provides an excellent overview of the development of the US nuclear arsenal, nuclear command and control and weapons safety and many of the same matters around the dangers of nuclear strategy as raised by Ellsberg but in a more balanced style.

This is a book written by a man who has actively pondered the unthinkable issues surrounding the use of nuclear weapons. The revelations he documents about the plans of both Cold War superpowers will shock, dismay and haunt whoever reads them.This book should be required reading for all government employees (civilian or military) having even a passing connection to defence or nuclear policy.The author's frequent references to Dr Strangelove only serve to emphasise the lunacy of the institutions and individuals that created and maintain the nuclear arsenals and war plans to this day. This is a truly terrifying and disturbing book but one that needed to be written and should be read.

I would recommended this book for Cold War history readers. It delves into the Strangelovian logic of all out nuclear war. The author has first hand experience and insights into historical events during the post war nuclear age. As a young management consultant (RAND) for the USAF, Ellsberg gains 'access to all areas' of US nuclear forces strategy, policy and operations during the 50s/60s when nuclear paranoia was at its peak.It's very readable and history buffs will like the straight from the horse's mouth details. If you like the movie Dr. Strangelove, you'll love this - Ellsberg says Strangelove was more like a documentary feature than a black comedy as far as he was concerned when he watched it the day it came out in the cinema. The book Fail Safe also chimes. It's a timely reminder of why a nuclear war of any description means utter catastrophe for the whole planet because it could well set in motion the Doomsday machines of Russian and US nuclear forces and therefore trigger all-out nuclear war, automatically, with no way to stop it.

This kept me absorbed but the subject is dark and the book didn't pass my Beach Read Test. Who might enjoy this? Anyone, civilian or military, involved with either nuclear weapons strategy-making or employment. (The author makes it clear that too few of these in the Cold War had really thought about some of the key issues.) And anyone whose tasks include physical and information security management.I bought the book without pausing to learn more about the author. By the time I had finished reading, although I found myself in fair agreement with his stance on the land-based portion of the 'triad', I hadn't warmed to the author himself and I felt deep unease at some of the ways in which he had sought to effect change, within and beyond the law.I'll now read further on this subject - particularly about the Cuban Missile Crisis.P.S. I would strongly recommend 'Command & Control' by Schlosser.

When 2 or 5 minute reads aren't enough. Well written and edited by the Pentagon papers whistle-blower who couldn't keep such secrets from the public, not just American but that threaten all of humanity, on his conscience. A few "wow" moments, particularly in the 2nd half of the book, along with recommendations for readers who want to get active about it.