The Fifth Risk

Michael Lewis is one of my fav authors because I’m a huge fan of data-based decisions and stories about the many brilliant and dedicated heroes that save our lives that we rarely hear about because they don’t seek fame or fortune. This book is, honestly, terrifying. There are departments in the federal government that save our lives now and in the future that many people don’t know about. The department of Energy, for example, is responsible for preventing nuclear disaster - not just from an attack but from an accident or radioactive waste making its way into a waterway (did you know that there is a plant in Washington with deadly radioactive waste that has a bin failure of 68% and still no plan on how to prevent the waste from continuing its slow and steady course towards the Colombia River?). Did you know that in the 60’s a nuclear bomb accidentally fell out of a transport plane over NC and didn’t explode because 1 of the 4 safety devices installed on it held - safety devices studied and implemented by the Dept. of Energy. There are so many threats to the U.S. that require constant vigilance (e.g. keeping track of the movement of uranium) that are managed by departments that are NOT the department of defense. Imagine an unqualified leader being put in place (in 2016) who didn’t understand what these departments did and put people in charge who were unqualified and knew nothing about science/technology or, worse, people who had a financial interest in removing data generated by these departments so they could make money off of the information (like hedging against a climate disaster in TX). And imagine these people took the spots (or spots were left vacant) of civil servants who had dedicated their lives to understanding and creating the science that kept Americans alive unbeknownst to those Americans. Americans at large are reactors, not preventers, and the media adjusts accordingly (covering disasters and not all of the prevented disasters). Like, you might see award ceremonies given to brave coast guard rescuers, but you don’t see award ceremonies for Art Allen who created a computerized model of how to pinpoint the search areas based on multiple data points (saving thousands of lives). Prevention needs to be celebrated. Public servants don’t do it for glory, but they need to start being recognized to bring this awareness and recruit young brain power (our federal knowledge base is retiring).EVERY president on DAY ONE or being elected sent a team into all federal agencies to learn as much as they could before inauguration (this required many hours, many documents, and many people). Except Trump of course. He sent noone nowhere. Eventually, a month in, he sent one or two unqualified loyalists to meet for one hour and only so the press wouldn’t report that he hadn’t sent anyone. Mounds of knowledge transfer (of CRITICAL agencies) went un-read, and mounds of data (especially about climate change or animal cruelty investigations) disappeared off of Federal websites.Trump shut down the Federal Government for an entire month in order to get 3 billion for his border wall. In doing so, he created major risk that will last for YEARS because of the 1 month halt in vigilance, in order to address a non-existent threat that he had made real in the minds of his followers.Many of the most dedicated civil servants are first generation Americans. They have come from places with non-functioning governments and appreciate in a keen way the way the U.S. government has allowed for them to climb the ladder to success, and they want to repay the favor.People don’t realize all the ways the government helps them. The U.S. government funds risky research where the benefits are HUGE but no bank would take the risk. These research programs funded life-changing inventions like the internet or the Kevlar vest for the military. They are also essential going forward for surviving climate change. Yet, Trump’s initial budget cut out the programs entirely. There are entire states (ironically, red) that would not survive without small business loans. Many/all recipients do not even realize these loans are made possible by the Federal government because it appears their local bank is issuing them (the government needs to market themselves better!)My take-away from this book is that the federal government needs to do a better job of marketing itself. it’s important that the general public knows what it does for them, so they understand the risk of voting for someone that doesn’t understand it or understands how he can undermine it to make money for himself or achieve short-term gain at the expense of our children. There are definitely areas for improvement in Federal Agencies (and the quest for improvement should always exist). The media (especially right wing media) is always going to cherry-pick the failures and not say anything about the other hundreds of ways the U.S. government saves people every day.And then the question about what to do about propaganda news that is ruining our country. It gets people all hyped up about inconsequential things (e.g. critical race theory being taught in law schools) and not about about the REAL and VERY SCARY risks - risks that are being held back as best they can by a group of smart, experienced and dedicated civil servants that haven’t yet been defunded by the U.S. government.

I was expecting something different. I also suspect the first few chapters were supplied by Chris Christie. I further suspect the author, who I enjoy, was apparently interested in a hit job on Trump. I do believe the author correctly pointed out Trump’s shortcomings at running what amounts to the largest employer in the US. Unfortunately, after observing Trump’s management style it seems to me that he is accustom to running an organization that has no other “shareholders” but himself. While I am not in complete disagreement with all of Trump’s policies, his abilities at governance would seem to be similar to a monarchy. That does not work well in the USA.

Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis (W.W. Norton, October 2018, 221 pg., $26.95, $10.58) shows in example after example how willfully ignorant Trump employees in Federal agencies were and are, as well as how much hard work and knowledgeability are required to do a good job within the federal bureaucracy. Lewis introduces the reader to a cast of dedicated professionals who provide necessary information and services to keep America running chosen from three million governments employs and with whom President Donald J. Trump has been at war since his inauguration.Lewis is a story-teller who takes on interesting topics, spinning stories around them as his highly readable, informative narrative style draws the reader in, eventually capturing completely. He begins by showing us how unprepared and incurious the Trump minions were before introducing us to John MacWilliams, the first risk assessment officer of the Department of Energy. MacWilliams had prepared notebooks full of explanatory data and information about the job of DOE and the risks it oversaw, only to spend a few minutes with, of all people, the clueless Rick Perry, the former governor of Texas, who inhabits the position.Throughout the vast and dedicated bureaucracy, government civil service employees, upon learning that Donald J. Trump had somehow been elected President, swung into action. They prepared voluminous briefing books to prepare members of the new administration to understand and continue doing the jobs that provided crucial information and services to the American people. They expected to be swarmed with these appointees the day after the election….And no one came! When a few new agency heads showed up, they demonstrated a remarkable lack of curiosity about what their jobs entailed. Eighty-nine year old Wilbur Ross thought the Department of Commerce was devoted to business and could never grasp the breadth of services and information it provided. Curiosity and skill were absent. And so information essential to meeting the needs of every day Americans, particulalarly in the rural areas that won the election for Mr. Trump, were hollowed out...neutered and made totally ineffective by a President not interested in governing.The advantage of Lewis’ style of story-telling lies in his ability to take a general principle of which we’re all aware, in this case the two facts that Trump is sending unqualified hacks to lead the major divisions of the government and that the agencies are being hollowed out, denied money and qualified staff becomes real in his hand. We see directly through the eyes of dedicated employees the importance of many functions we’re not aware exist protect and inform, as well as how cutting off the top and denying funding hollow out the agencies, denying the recipients of their services essential protections and advice that agencies provide. By focusing on the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Energy, Lewis shows the breadth of their portfolio and the importance of the high quality people working for them. Replacing what Trump has so successfully destroyed, with the canny help of one of America’s most underrated disablers, Mick Mulvaney, will take a generation or more to rebuild once we rid ourselves of their depredations.The replacement of food scientist Dr. Cathie Wotecki with right wing political hack and talk show host Sam Clovis represents another example of removing expertise from important, but often quietly effective low-profile specialists with political people seeking to achieve political goals. The achievements of Wotecki during her time with FDA at the Department of Agriculture were monumental, and lifesaving. Clovis job was to shut down programs and eliminate the words “climate change” from government lexicon.The role of government in rural America hidden, by being administered through small banks, brings expertise and money into places where neither exists, while being hidden by local interests and their antipathy to what they see as “the government.” Lillian Salerno eventually ran for Congress as a Democrat as she became increasingly aware of the Trump strategy of replacing professionals with political appointees who had no expertise or interest in the areas where her specialization had helped strengthen rural areas. Simply a small example of the larger problem. She lost!Instead of re-visiting the depredations committed daily on the American people, the Tweeting, whining, self-promoting course of the Trump train wreck, Lewis takes the time to burrow into the inner workings of the crucial agencies and programs operated by the lower level political appointees and civil servants who make the wheels turn. Often, the recipients of government services don’t even know these services are sponsored and paid for by the government. Lewis shows how commitment, expertise, hard work, and dedication have built a system that actually delivers necessary services, improves the national health, protects the environment, and places needed checks on the damage often perpetrated by big money and large corporate interests. The results are a hollowing out of the inner workings of the government, hidden by bluster and mis-direction from the top. There’s no little irony in Lewis’s ending the book with the story of a tornado chaser, who has learned to follow behind storms to avoid being killed by the object of his studies.Michael Lewis is the author of a series of best-selling books mostly having, at least superficially, to do with sports and/or business (Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, Blindside, The Big Short) which have all been best sellers as illuminating changing aspects of our culture through his wonderful storytelling. Originally from New Orleans, and educated at Princeton and The London School of Economics, Lewis’ is 58 years old, and with Fifth Risk at the top of his game.In the beginning of Fith Risk by Michael Lewis (W.W. Norton, October 2018, 221 pg., $26.95, $10.58), Lewis chats at length with John Macwilliams, who has identified the five risks facing the government as the Trump administration sets and achieves its chaotic agenda. MacWilliams has identified four risks for Lewis, who finally asks him what the fifth risk is, to which MacWilliams responds, perhaps in a toneless, hopeless voice, “Project management.” This book is highly entertaining as well as “Must Reading!”

I didn’t get the purpose of this book. Is it a fairy tale? Is it an ideological attack against Donald Trump? Has it the intent of giving some information to the overall citizen about the width of some federal government programs and Departments? Probably yes, who knows? Despite these question marks and if you have spare time go on, read.

Perhaps Michael Lewis's greatest strength as an author is his ability to tell the reader something he or she doesn't know and would never guess. He finds his gems of intellectual curiosities in the most unexpected places, whether it be in sabermetrics, high frequency trading or the most vulnerable spot in a football team's offensive line. In his most recent work, The Fifth Risk, Lewis looks at a number of underappreciated departments and agencies in the United States Federal Government, and the disastrous consequences that might flow from the current administration's inability to appreciate the value of these offices.The issue Lewis explores is not an ideological one. It is not one of right vs. left, conservatives vs. liberals or Republicans vs. Democrats. Rather, the divergence is between those in government service who are there for some noble purpose that looks out for the greater good, and those in powerful economic positions whose primary concern is self-interest and making as much money as possible. As the author states more succinctly, the struggle is "between the people who are in it for the mission and the people who are in it for the money."One might think that a book about the inner workings of the Departments of Energy, Agriculture and Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) might be a snoozefest, but this is not the case when the story teller is Michael Lewis. Lewis goes from the macro to the micro as he describes the lives of a number of brilliant civil servants, each devoted to a greater purpose beyond their own career or financial enrichment. He uses their experience and vision to show how the much maligned and underappreciated civil service works to better the lives of many Americans caught in the undertow of the growing gap between rich and poor.For example, many think of the Department of Agriculture as being concerned only with farms and farmers. But it also oversees the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches, and provides weather and other information which provides information to grow crops optimally. Lewis explores how the Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly and how census and other data collected by the government in tremendously valuable in all sorts of scientific advancements. The Commerce Department is also responsible for the NOAA, whose advances in weather tracking have saved the lives of those who live in regions affected by tornadoes and other hostile weather phenomena. Public sharing of that information is now being threatened by those in the private sector who want to make money charging for weather information gathered at taxpayers' expense, rather than making this information freely available, and who have the political connections to make this happen. Lewis notes that since the new administration has taken over, mountains of data previously available to the public on government websites, has been removed and how those in tornado zones and other at-risk regions are now in greater danger because of the influence of private sector weather services having influence with the new government so as to make such information available, but only for a fee.Many think of the Department of Energy as being only concerned with oil. But as Lewis points out, this is a minor part of that department's responsibility. Government funding from that department, and not private lenders, has financed many of the greatest technological advancements of our generation and has done so profitably. That funding is now at risk and Lewis warns that this may stifle creativity in technological advancement. The Department of Energy also manages international nuclear risk as well as cleanup of nuclear waste at home. Cuts to the department will mean that there will probably not be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do, or to head off future problems from past nuclear development, all because private sector interests are demanding less government regulation. Lewis notes an overall effort to purge from government any acknowledgement of the risks of climate change and global warming.Lewis provides an eye-opening account of the dangers of an inadequate transition of government, as well as from some of the short-sighted and selfishly-motivated policies and appointments made by the Trump administration. This book offers a valuable education about some of the unknown and unappreciated risks that flow from disrespect and contempt for science and data analysis. The author's telling the stories of the lives and passions of individual public servants concerned about these issues puts a human face on the points he is trying to make.The book's only failing is in its lack of an epilogue or summary to tie these stories together and underscore the warnings that Lewis is giving. In spite of this, The Fifth Risk packs a lot in a concise (219 pages) package. It is told in the author's enjoyable conversational style, like listening to a friend over a cup of coffee. In the process, he makes it clear that there is much to be lost if the trend continues to allow science and information gathering and analysis to be suppressed in favour of the interests of privileged private sector greed.

Con il suo solito talento di spiegare con chiarezza e semplicità argomenti difficili, Lewis riesce a centrare tematiche che riguardano e fanno riflettere tutti.

Very good quality of paper.Don't really need to put to words on the quality of the book. Michael Lewis has yet again delivered top quality. Eye opening information. You feel like finishing it in 1 sitting

Ce livre est passionnant et ... terrifiant ! Il présente les témoignages des personnes qui ont accompagné le passage de l'administration Obama à celle (mais existait elle au démarrage ?) de Trump. On peut alors se demander combien de temps les USA mettront pour se relever des dommages qui ont été créés par cette passation. Et il est même probable que certains points ne reviendront jamais à leur état initial. C'est une lecture très éclairante car beaucoup de gens n'ont aucune idée de ce qui s'est passé et se passe encore. Quel gâchis !